Podcast

Episode 27: Can Statistics Be Used to Predict the Next Federal Chancellor?

Podcast Streuspanne – Statistics and Their Curiosities /

The latest episode of the Streuspanne podcast is about election polls, forecasts and their uncertainties. Using Donald Trump's surprising re-election as an example, we shed light on how such forecasts are made, what sources of error there are and how we can assess their accuracy. We also discuss why polls are not forecasts, how to assess uncertainties mathematically and what Trump's election victory reveals about systematic errors.