The third wave of the Corona pandemic is considered to be broken – since the end of April 2021, the numbers have been clearly declining. Researchers at Fraunhofer ITWM have used the EpideMSE software to mathematically analyze the effects that different measures had in combating the pandemic. Mass testing proved to be particularly effective.
The researchers of Fraunhofer ITWM have investigated the effects of the three packages of measures »vaccination, contact restriction, and testing«. »This seems important to us in order to be able to react properly in case of further outbreaks,« Dr. Jan Mohring from the department »Transport Processes« explains the intention of the report written by several mathematicians.
According to the study, all three measures contributed to a similar extent to reducing the number of new infections. The research group sees the strongest effect in the nationwide rapid tests without symptomatic cause and attributes to them a supporting role in breaking the third wave. According to the study, mass testing at schools proved to be particularly effective – presumably because the combination of compulsory school attendance and compulsory testing allowed an unfiltered view of all population groups.
The study examined the infection figures reported to the Robert Koch Institute for Germany and for four selected German states: Hesse, Lower Saxony, Rhineland-Palatinate and Thuringia. These were selected due to their partly different vacation periods. The period for simulation and adjustment extends from 25.01. to 17.05.2021, thus containing the third Corona wave.
The introduction of mass testing lightened the dark figure by increasing the detection rate: Infected individuals who had previously shown no symptoms or had not sought medical treatment were now detected. The study proves: The detection rate of infected individuals has steadily increased in Germany since the second week of March. From this period on, self-tests were available to everybody. Only over Easter did the detection rate briefly collapse. After the school vacations, which ended differently, they rose steeply. »We were surprised ourselves at how closely the increase in the detection rate correlated with the introduction of rapid tests at schools in the states we studied,« says Dr. Jan Mohring.
How does one determine the contribution with which the various packages of measures broke the third wave from the RKI's reporting data alone? »That was a bit tricky,« says Dr. Jan Mohring. »We determined the weekly contact and detection rates so that the simulated case numbers matched the real ones. That was our model of reality. We then ran three scenarios, each with one set of measures turned off. If testing was omitted, the increase in infections was the highest.
Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Mathematics ITWM![Graphics_Third_Wave_comparison_of_measures [German] [ JPG 0.13 MB ]](/content/dam/itwm/de/images/PressemeldungenBilder/2021/Corona-Tests_Dritte_Welle_Maßnahmen_Grafik.jpg){kind=link}
![Graphics_Third_Wave_comparoson_federal_states [German] [ JPG 0.12 MB ]](/content/dam/itwm/de/images/PressemeldungenBilder/2021/Corona-Tests_Dritte_Welle_Vergleich_Bundeslaender.jpg){kind=link}